Bitcoin is down 47% from its October 2025 peak of $126,000. It's currently trading around $67,000, and every crypto influencer on Twitter is screaming the same thing: "Buy the dip!" These are the same people who said it at $100,000, at $90,000, and at $80,000. I sold my Bitcoin at $125,000 back in October, and I'm not buying back in at current prices. Not even close. Here's why this crash isn't over yet, and exactly when I'll buy again.
The Sideways Trap
Right now, Bitcoin is entering what I call a sideways trap. Over the next several weeks or months, I expect it to bounce around between $58,000 and $85,000. To most people, this will look like Bitcoin "finding support" or "building a base for the next rally." That's not what's happening.
This sideways movement isn't bullish accumulation. It's preparation for the next leg down. Think of it as the market taking a breath before continuing the drop. And I've seen this pattern before.
In 2024, Bitcoin spent an entire year stuck in a box between $58,000 and $74,000. For twelve months, it just chopped around in that range, going nowhere. Then it finally broke out and ran to $100,000 and beyond. Everyone who bought during that sideways phase made money because the break was upward.
But here's the thing: same pattern, different context. In 2024, we were in a bull market. The sideways box was accumulation before the final push higher. In 2026, we're in a bear market. The same technical pattern plays out completely differently. When Bitcoin forms these consolidation boxes during bear markets, they don't break up. They break down.
So when I see Bitcoin setting up another range between $58,000 and $85,000, I'm not thinking "great buying opportunity." I'm thinking "this is the setup for the drop to $45,000."
Historical Cycles Don't Bottom Halfway Through
Let me show you why I'm so confident this isn't the bottom. Bitcoin has gone through this cycle three times now, and the pattern is remarkably consistent.
In the first cycle, Bitcoin peaked near $21,000 in late 2017. Then it crashed 84% down to around $3,000-$4,000 by late 2018. Not a 40% crash. Not a 50% crash. An 84% crash.
In the second cycle, Bitcoin hit $69,000 in November 2021. Then it dropped 77% to the $15,000-$17,000 range by late 2022. Again, not halfway. Almost all the way down.
Now we're in the third cycle. Bitcoin peaked at $126,000 in October 2025 and it's currently down 47% to around $67,000. If you think the pattern just stops working now, I don't know what to tell you. History says we're about halfway through this crash, not at the bottom.
Based on the pattern, a 65% to 75% drawdown from the peak would put Bitcoin somewhere between $44,000 and $50,000. That's my target zone. That's where the real bottom will be. Not here at $67,000 where people still have hope.
The Math Is Simple
Here's why waiting matters so much. Let's say you have $100,000 to invest in Bitcoin.
If you buy right now at $67,000, you get 1.49 Bitcoin.
If you wait and buy at $45,000, you get 2.22 Bitcoin.
Same capital. Same amount of money. But by waiting for the actual bottom instead of buying the "dip" halfway down, you end up with 49% more Bitcoin. That's not a small difference. That's the difference between winning and losing in crypto.
I saw this exact scenario play out in 2022. Bitcoin was crashing from $69,000. It hit $30,000 and a lot of people thought that was the bottom. They bought there because it felt like a good deal compared to $69,000. Then Bitcoin kept dropping all the way to $15,000.
The people who bought at $30,000 and held through to $15,000 were underwater and traumatized. The people who waited and bought at $15,000 got twice as much Bitcoin for their money. Six months later when Bitcoin rallied back to $30,000, the patient buyers had already doubled their investment. The impatient buyers were just breaking even.
Patience isn't just a virtue in crypto. It's a strategy that directly translates to how much Bitcoin you end up owning.
What The Bottom Actually Feels Like
So when will I buy? My target is $44,000 to $50,000, and based on cycle timing, I expect that to happen sometime between September and October 2026. But the price and the date are only part of it. The feeling matters just as much.
Real bottoms don't feel like buying opportunities. They feel catastrophic. In late 2018 when Bitcoin hit $3,000, the headlines were all about how crypto was dead. Projects were shutting down. People who bought at $10,000 or $15,000 had given up. The few people still talking about Bitcoin were mostly mocked.
Same thing in late 2022 at $15,000. FTX had just collapsed. The entire industry looked like a scam. Nobody wanted to touch Bitcoin. That crushing feeling of despair and hopelessness? That's what real bottoms feel like.
Right now at $67,000, it doesn't feel that way yet. People are still talking about "buying the dip" and "Bitcoin always comes back." There's still optimism. Still hope. That tells me we're not there yet. We're in the middle of the crash, not at the end of it.
The real bottom will be obvious not because of the price, but because of how it feels. When everyone is convinced Bitcoin is finished and the dream is over, that's when I'll be buying aggressively.
Why Most People Get This Wrong
The hard part about this strategy isn't understanding it. It's actually executing it. Because human psychology works against you at every step.
When Bitcoin is at $126,000 and going higher, it feels safe to buy. Everyone's making money. Your friends are talking about their gains. FOMO kicks in hard. That's when most people buy. I did the opposite. I sold at $125,000 because I knew the euphoria meant we were near the top.
Now Bitcoin is at $67,000 and dropping. It feels scary to wait. What if you miss the bottom? What if this is as low as it goes? The fear of missing out shifts to the fear of losing an opportunity. So people buy here at $67,000 thinking they're being smart and buying the dip.
Then Bitcoin drops to $45,000. Now they're down 33% on their investment. The pain is real. The fear gets worse. And when Bitcoin is at its actual bottom, when everyone else has given up, these same people panic and sell at a loss. They bought high and sold low, the exact opposite of what works.
The "HODL forever" crowd isn't much better off. They bought at $100,000 or $80,000 and they're sitting through a 77% drawdown completely traumatized. Sure, they didn't sell. But they also can't buy more because they're already fully invested and underwater. They just suffer through the entire bear market waiting for it to end.
My strategy is different. I sold at the top. I'm sitting in cash. And when Bitcoin hits $45,000 and everyone thinks it's dead, I'll have the capital and the conviction to buy aggressively. More importantly, I'll be buying with preserved capital, not trying to average down from terrible entry points.
The pattern rewards patience and punishes emotion. Every single cycle. Yet most people still do it wrong because fighting your own psychology is harder than understanding the strategy.
My Plan
So here's exactly what I'm doing. I sold my Bitcoin at $125,000 in October 2025. I've documented that in my previous blog posts, so this isn't hindsight. I called it in real time and executed the trade.
Since then, I've been sitting in cash watching Bitcoin drop from $126,000 to $67,000. I'm not touching it. I'm not "buying the dip." I'm waiting for my target zone of $44,000 to $50,000 which I expect to see sometime between September and October 2026.
Why am I so confident in this timeline and these numbers? Because I've used this exact pattern to predict three cycles correctly. The first cycle I caught the bottom around $3,500 in 2018. The second cycle I bought near $20,000 in early 2023 (missed the exact $15,000 bottom but close enough). Both times, I bought when everyone else thought Bitcoin was finished.
This time won't be different. The cycle will play out the same way it always has. Bitcoin will drop into the $44,000-$50,000 zone. The media will declare crypto dead. Retail investors will capitulate. And that's when I'll buy.
Not a little bit. A lot. Because that's when Bitcoin is actually cheap, not just cheaper than it was at the peak. And that entry point will position me perfectly for the next bull run in 2027-2028 when Bitcoin runs to new all-time highs again.
The difference between me and most people isn't that I'm smarter or have better information. It's that I have the patience to wait for the actual opportunity instead of chasing prices on the way down. I trust the pattern more than I trust my emotions.
Bitcoin at $67,000 might look like a deal compared to $126,000. But it's expensive compared to $45,000. And $45,000 is coming. So I'm waiting. When everyone else is panicking and selling, I'll be buying. That's how you accumulate more Bitcoin with the same capital. That's how cycles work. And that's why I'm not buying Bitcoin right now—but I will be soon enough.
